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    Introduction
    翻译：简介
    In recent years, important institutional investors such as university endowments, sovereign wealth funds and pension funds have shifted their asset allocation away from standard asset classes like stocks and bonds into alternative investments such as private equity and hedge funds. This suggests that their portfolio managers either believe that alternatives earn high net abnormal returns or they provide diversification benefits.
    翻译：近年来，大学捐赠资产、主权财富基金以及养老基金等重要的机构投资者日益将其投资重点从传统的股票和债券投资转向私募股权和对冲基金等另类投资方式，这表明其投资组合经理认为另类投资方式能够取得更高的超常净收益，或有助于实现投资收益的多样化。
    This paper focuses on investors’ views on the level of net abnormal returns. We assume that asset returns follow a factor model and endowments solve a standard portfolio allocation problem. Using a Bayesian framework, we use information on asset returns and cross-sectional asset allocations to estimate the views on net abnormal returns—which we term alpha—that justify the observed weights on alternative investments. We find that the views on private equity’s alpha are much higher than its time-series average abnormal return. The opposite is true for hedge funds: our estimated alpha is lower than the historical alpha of our proxy. Additionally, we find that endowments’ views on expected abnormal returns have increased, reflecting the monotonic increase in allocations to alternatives during the period of our study
    翻译：本文重点探讨投资者对超常净收益程度的观点。我们认为，资产收益遵循某种因子模型，而捐赠资产可体现投资组合的正常配置模式。我们根据贝叶斯框架，利用资产收益和跨行业资产分配信息预测人们对另类投资超常净收益的期望值（该期望值用阿尔法表示）。我们发现，私募股权的阿尔法值远远高于其同期的实际超常净收益，而对冲基金则恰恰相反：我们预测的对冲基金阿尔法值低于以往实际的阿尔法值。我们还发现，捐赠资产对其投资的超常收益期望值有了提高，这意味着捐赠资产越来越多地用于另类投资。
    Our analysis of investor beliefs is based on a comprehensive panel dataset of university endowment asset allocations and performance. Universities have been leaders in the recent trend towards alternative investments. David Swensen’s Pioneering Portfolio Management articulated the value proposition of this investment style; first, accessing factor returns through nonmarketable investments offers an additional liquidity premium to patient investors and second,inefficient asset markets offer astute investors the chance to capture positive alpha by identifying skilled managers. A handful of university endowment officers put these principles into practice in the 1990s and 2000s and were highly successful. Many other institutions followed suit (cf. Goetzmann and Oster, 2012).
    翻译：我们对投资者理念的分析是以大学捐赠资产投资配置及其表现的全面数据为基础的。大学是另类投资的领先者。大卫·史文森所着的《投资组合管理新探》对这种投资方式的理念进行了阐述：首先，通过非出售性投资取得因子收益有助于提高长线投资者投资资金的流动性；其次，低效的投资市场正是精明的投资者任用熟练的投资经理谋取超常收益的良好机会。1990年代和2000年代，一些大学捐赠资产管理者将这些原则付诸实践并取得了很大成功，其他机构也纷纷仿效（参见Goetzmann和Oster2012年发表的有关文章）。
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