摘要: 气候变化的检测与归因是研究观测到的系统或变量的变化是否具有显著性，外强迫及外驱动因子是否是他们变化的原因。这是一个从各种外强迫与驱动因子开始到气候系统，自然与生物系统，社会经济系统各部分对强迫响应以及他们之间相互作用的因果链。GPGP综合的4种检测归因方法囊括了目前研究这一因果链的不同途径。自1990年IPCC 第一次评价报告以来气候变化的检测与归因经历了从全球尺度，半球，海洋与陆地，7大洲乃至区域尺度气温升高和其他系统或变量变化趋势的研究。人为气候变化的指纹检测与归因方法已普遍用于全球大尺度水文循环要素—纬度带平均降水，强降水，径流，比湿，水汽含量等时空型态变化的研究，个别地也应用到流域尺度， 以冰雪融化补给为主河流的天然流量，积雪和最低温度变化的研究. 对于以降水为主，且受人类活动干扰较大的流域，水文循环要素观测变化的检测与归因研究大多数聚焦于观测的气候要素，非气候变量对其影响，而不回答变化是自然的还是人为强迫引起的。这种方法要求足够长的高质量的气候与非气候观测数据，先进的统计检验技术，物理基础好的水文模型。他们对于正确认识因果关系的过程至关重要。对于观测资料好，水文循环要素对气候变化敏感的流域，采用正规的检测与归因方法或最优指纹法识别外强迫及驱动因子的影响将是一项十分有意义并有发展前景的研究。 科学学术报告翻译|环保翻译案例|北京科学翻译|技术翻译公司

关键词：IPCC评价报告，气候变化，水文循环，检测与归因

Some views on Detection and Attribution of observed changes in hydrological cycle due to global warming

Abstract: Detection and Attribution is to study on whether observed changes in a system or an variable are detectable and external forcings and/or drivers are the cause of their observed changes. This is an interactive cause-effect chain from external forcing, drivers to climate system, physical and biological, socio-economic systems and interaction each other as well. GPGP synthesized 4 different methods of detection and attribution to approach to it.
Since 1990 detection and attribution have been undergoing refined in time and space process from global, half-hemisphere, marine, land and 7 continents. Fingerprinting method has been extensively applied in recognition patterns of variation in space and time of elements of hydrological cycle such as zone precipitation, extreme precipitation, specific humidity, lower tropospheric moisture content,stemflow effecting by external forcings in global large scale and natural runoff, snow pack and minimum temperature in some river basin scale,
In river basins recharged by precipitation and effected by human activities, detection and attribution of elements of hydrological cycle are mainly focused on analytical approaches to linking observed changes to changes in temperature, precipitation and nonclimatic factors without the emphasis on causation by the anthropogenic component of climate change. For this kind of approch long term observed climatic and nonclimatic data, advanced statistic technology and hydrological model with physical basis are very important for recognition of processe in cause-effect relation. In river basin with high qualified long term observed climate and nonclimate data and hydrological variables sensitive to climate change, optimal fingerprinting method will be valuable in detection and attribution studies.
Keywords: IPCC assesement reports, climate change, hydrological cycle, detection and attribution.科学学术报告翻译|环保翻译案例|北京科学翻译|技术翻译公司

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